I'm curious what the breakdown in Seagate's Consumer electronics (NAS, DVR, Gaming) bucket is. With the rumor mill predicting next generation consoles will be eschewing spinning rust for flash; I'd expect the gaming segment to follow mass market PC HDDs in imploding over the next few years.
As flash gets cheaper I could see DVRs doing the same; both for size reasons and because streaming to multiple clients at once is easier if you don't have to deal with HDD random IO challenges.
Are DVRs still a thing? I don't know anyone who has one. After VCRs went out of style, most people I know stopped bothering with recording TV because DVDs took off and were much easier. TiVo really wasn't a thing here in Germany, as far as I know.
Seagate still considers them important enough to list in defining the category. That could be inertia I suppose; which is why I'd like to see a breakdown within that category.
DVR as in security camera recording storage. Those are usually optimised for multiple streams writing/reading at once, and thus have their own category. Anyway, it's a sizeable category.
Exactly. That's the bulk of "DVR" use listed here nowadays. It's amazing (and depressing) how much surveillance footage is both generated and then stored not for days, but sometimes years. As more and more higher resolution cameras are being used, that will only go up.
In the US, DVRs are still a thing. They are slowly, very slowly going away with internet streaming. Until more people cut cords with cable, I see them sticking around. Granted, some of those cable DVRs aren't local storage, but cloud based DVRs.
the funny part, there was a story on the news here that some have multiple subscriptions to streaming services, and the total cost, can equal the cost of some cable plans..
We all knew it would come to this. The a la carte model is ultimately more expensive, but offers greater flexibility and choice. We have Netflix ($14/mo), Amazon Prime ($8/mo), and Disney+ ($4/mo) as the only paid subscriptions in our house. We don't really use Prime for video watching, it's just a bonus, but I'll count it anyway. Right now, that's $26/mo for nearly all the content we want and way more than we could every watch in a lifetime... with no ads (Prime still has pre-roll ads for their own content sometimes). On top of our $50/mo internet, that's $76/mo.
I also buy lots of 4K Blu-rays and back them up on my ~70TB Plex server. The recent 10TB WD deals have helped out a lot.
Not just for desktop or consoles - in the server world, I'm seeing configurations with 4x480GB lease for the same amount as 6x4TB. €59/month servers, admittedly with outdated Westmere-era CPUs.
Now, this is still quite a price premium in usable storage, but it reflects the fact that many people will be *quite* happy with 1-1.5TB and lots of IOPS after RAID, even on a system with a 1GB hardware capacitior-backed DRAM cache to absorb writes.
The rise in hard disk capacity has been driven by the need to retain a role in media storage. But SSD flash is catching up faster and is now the default; HDD+NVMe has taken over the high-end.
It blows my mind that someone can still turn a profit while paying to keep a westmere era machine on. A newer system could handle a 10x the clients (due to RAM density) and have the same operating cost.
Considering usage and demand is important in calculating profitability. If said westmere box was never in high demand or adversely impactful of productivity, then why bother to replace it just ot have faster hardware when the faster hardware will do nothing to make your business or workload more efficient? This sort of thing is turning up all over the place as people stretch hardware lifespans outward because their ancient junk is still more than fast enough for a given workload and newer equipment, though faster, isn't going to offer much even in terms of power efficiency.
Sure, but... we don't actually *need* that much RAM. With the combination of optimization of memory use in languages, and databases running on SSD (so not needing quite as much cached for good performance), memory requirements per user has decreased. Serving files uses almost no CPU, except a bit for SSL encryption (and even then, it's like one tenth of one core).
I guess you're thinking about the VPS hosting use-case, but we're running a web application, and given our storage and transfer requirements, leasing main server hardware is a much better value. (Don't even talk to me about true cloud - it'd be 10x the price for our transfer alone.)
I highly doubt next gen consoles get rid of HDD altogether given the price of an all SSD solution. $100 for 1TB of space is a lot to add to the price of a console. 500GB won't cut it either, by the time the consoles launch that's not enough space for a decent game library. More then likely they are using something akin to an SSHD. A large flash cache on top of a HDD. All the benefits of an SSD and a HDD. If the cache is appropriately sized, the end user shouldn't notice a difference.
unit shipments down 50% since 2010. thats the headline. the question is how long for another 50% hit to unit shipments at which HDD will start to get literally more expensive per GB as SSDs get cheaper. my money is on 2021
As long as people want to store surveillance footage by the thousands of terabytes, HDDs won't go away. They're still the cheapest way to store such vast quantities of data, and are also still better for cold storage.
Spinning disks will be with us until SSD technology can accommodate long term dead storage. Once that happens, I can see the spinning disks disappearing very rapidly.
On to a more important question: The banner graphic at the top of the article suggests that disk drives are made from the blood or souls of the damned. Is this accurate?
And people keep trying to tell me that HDDs are dying...
I've been saying nope to that forever. The world is storing more and more data than ever before and larger and larger files. HDD is still the best medium for most of that storage still and will be for a while yet.
Amazingly, there are only about 50,000 western movies. You can store all of them in 1GB quality at 50,000GB. That's only 4 hard drives!
Last I checked the Netflix database was only about 5000 movies or so, so you can create a pretty decent movie collection with only 1 hard drive. TV of course is another story altogether.
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27 Comments
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DanNeely - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
I'm curious what the breakdown in Seagate's Consumer electronics (NAS, DVR, Gaming) bucket is. With the rumor mill predicting next generation consoles will be eschewing spinning rust for flash; I'd expect the gaming segment to follow mass market PC HDDs in imploding over the next few years.As flash gets cheaper I could see DVRs doing the same; both for size reasons and because streaming to multiple clients at once is easier if you don't have to deal with HDD random IO challenges.
Death666Angel - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Are DVRs still a thing? I don't know anyone who has one. After VCRs went out of style, most people I know stopped bothering with recording TV because DVDs took off and were much easier. TiVo really wasn't a thing here in Germany, as far as I know.shabby - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Do you really want to pay for cloud storage? I'd imagine people are getting sick of all these subscription fees and want to store locally.Golgatha777 - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Plex server + HDHomerun dual channel tuner = lifetime DVR subscriptionDeath666Angel - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Was that reply meant for me? Did I say anything about cloud storage?DanNeely - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Seagate still considers them important enough to list in defining the category. That could be inertia I suppose; which is why I'd like to see a breakdown within that category.timecop1818 - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
DVR as in security camera recording storage. Those are usually optimised for multiple streams writing/reading at once, and thus have their own category. Anyway, it's a sizeable category.eastcoast_pete - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Exactly. That's the bulk of "DVR" use listed here nowadays. It's amazing (and depressing) how much surveillance footage is both generated and then stored not for days, but sometimes years. As more and more higher resolution cameras are being used, that will only go up.khanikun - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
In the US, DVRs are still a thing. They are slowly, very slowly going away with internet streaming. Until more people cut cords with cable, I see them sticking around. Granted, some of those cable DVRs aren't local storage, but cloud based DVRs.Qasar - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
the funny part, there was a story on the news here that some have multiple subscriptions to streaming services, and the total cost, can equal the cost of some cable plans..nathanddrews - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
We all knew it would come to this. The a la carte model is ultimately more expensive, but offers greater flexibility and choice. We have Netflix ($14/mo), Amazon Prime ($8/mo), and Disney+ ($4/mo) as the only paid subscriptions in our house. We don't really use Prime for video watching, it's just a bonus, but I'll count it anyway. Right now, that's $26/mo for nearly all the content we want and way more than we could every watch in a lifetime... with no ads (Prime still has pre-roll ads for their own content sometimes). On top of our $50/mo internet, that's $76/mo.I also buy lots of 4K Blu-rays and back them up on my ~70TB Plex server. The recent 10TB WD deals have helped out a lot.
GreenReaper - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
Not just for desktop or consoles - in the server world, I'm seeing configurations with 4x480GB lease for the same amount as 6x4TB. €59/month servers, admittedly with outdated Westmere-era CPUs.Now, this is still quite a price premium in usable storage, but it reflects the fact that many people will be *quite* happy with 1-1.5TB and lots of IOPS after RAID, even on a system with a 1GB hardware capacitior-backed DRAM cache to absorb writes.
The rise in hard disk capacity has been driven by the need to retain a role in media storage. But SSD flash is catching up faster and is now the default; HDD+NVMe has taken over the high-end.
willis936 - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
It blows my mind that someone can still turn a profit while paying to keep a westmere era machine on. A newer system could handle a 10x the clients (due to RAM density) and have the same operating cost.PeachNCream - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
Considering usage and demand is important in calculating profitability. If said westmere box was never in high demand or adversely impactful of productivity, then why bother to replace it just ot have faster hardware when the faster hardware will do nothing to make your business or workload more efficient? This sort of thing is turning up all over the place as people stretch hardware lifespans outward because their ancient junk is still more than fast enough for a given workload and newer equipment, though faster, isn't going to offer much even in terms of power efficiency.GreenReaper - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
Sure, but... we don't actually *need* that much RAM. With the combination of optimization of memory use in languages, and databases running on SSD (so not needing quite as much cached for good performance), memory requirements per user has decreased. Serving files uses almost no CPU, except a bit for SSL encryption (and even then, it's like one tenth of one core).I guess you're thinking about the VPS hosting use-case, but we're running a web application, and given our storage and transfer requirements, leasing main server hardware is a much better value. (Don't even talk to me about true cloud - it'd be 10x the price for our transfer alone.)
evernessince - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
I highly doubt next gen consoles get rid of HDD altogether given the price of an all SSD solution. $100 for 1TB of space is a lot to add to the price of a console. 500GB won't cut it either, by the time the consoles launch that's not enough space for a decent game library. More then likely they are using something akin to an SSHD. A large flash cache on top of a HDD. All the benefits of an SSD and a HDD. If the cache is appropriately sized, the end user shouldn't notice a difference.azfacea - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
unit shipments down 50% since 2010. thats the headline. the question is how long for another 50% hit to unit shipments at which HDD will start to get literally more expensive per GB as SSDs get cheaper. my money is on 2021eastcoast_pete - Monday, November 18, 2019 - link
As long as people want to store surveillance footage by the thousands of terabytes, HDDs won't go away. They're still the cheapest way to store such vast quantities of data, and are also still better for cold storage.waterdog - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
Spinning disks will be with us until SSD technology can accommodate long term dead storage. Once that happens, I can see the spinning disks disappearing very rapidly.On to a more important question: The banner graphic at the top of the article suggests that disk drives are made from the blood or souls of the damned. Is this accurate?
Lord of the Bored - Wednesday, November 20, 2019 - link
I believe that impression is, in fact, correct. That's what the noise they make when they're running comes from, the souls wailing to get out.SirMaster - Tuesday, November 19, 2019 - link
And people keep trying to tell me that HDDs are dying...I've been saying nope to that forever. The world is storing more and more data than ever before and larger and larger files. HDD is still the best medium for most of that storage still and will be for a while yet.
flyingpants265 - Wednesday, November 20, 2019 - link
Amazingly, there are only about 50,000 western movies. You can store all of them in 1GB quality at 50,000GB. That's only 4 hard drives!Last I checked the Netflix database was only about 5000 movies or so, so you can create a pretty decent movie collection with only 1 hard drive. TV of course is another story altogether.
Smartcom5 - Wednesday, November 20, 2019 - link
I'm curious, what comes after Exabyte? Zettabyte and then Yottabyte, right?… and then? Are we running out of numbers anytime soon?